An analysis on existence of conspiracy theories
1) There is a non-zero probability of existence of one or more grand conspiracies.
2) The control of information and thus narrative defining power is getting more and more centralized so possibility of nefarious groups to gain more and more control is also increasing.
3) A general grand narrative has a self-preserving characteristic that the capability of a person to analyze and verify is generally proportional to the person's ability to benefit from such a narrative.
4) Specialization of knowledge increases the possibility of a conspiracy going undetected by the vast majority of people.
5) The only method available to a common person is to analyze for any inconsistencies or gaps in a narrative. Generally the fringe narratives have larger gaps or inconsistencies, though the mainstream normative authoritative narratives are also not devoid of them.
6) Analysis capability (Access to information, freedom of thought, opportunity) is probably normally distributed and generally a person can always identify gaps or inconsistencies in any belief of the wider population at lower level of understanding; it is only inductively logical to assume that one's own understanding at one's level of understanding could have gaps/inconsistencies which one is unaware of.
7) Distribution of information decreases the possibility of undetected conspiracy though it increases the numbers of fringe theories going viral.
8) Also, it is impossible for a common person to verify the veracity of any narrative: either the mainstream authoritative narrative or any fringe narrative.
9) Skepticism increases with greater knowledge, so unless a person has a direct first hand observation or experience of a conspiracy it is impossible to verify any narrative by gaining more knowledge or doing more analysis.
10) Even if such a conspiracy exist, and if a common person gets to know the existence by first hand observation or experience, the ability of a common person to do something significant is very limited.
11) A belief in a conspiracy theory would only cause a common person a great difficulty in terms of both living standard and mental anguish proportional to the expanse of the conspiracy theory and strength of the belief.
Recommendations:
1) It can be recommended to accept the normative narrative while keeping a shred of skepticism.
2) The best a person can do is to favor decentralization of control; although centralization is efficient, it is more risky to be wrong with greater ramification.
3) Support freedom of expression; do not be complicit in *too much* suppression of dissenting voices.
2) The control of information and thus narrative defining power is getting more and more centralized so possibility of nefarious groups to gain more and more control is also increasing.
3) A general grand narrative has a self-preserving characteristic that the capability of a person to analyze and verify is generally proportional to the person's ability to benefit from such a narrative.
4) Specialization of knowledge increases the possibility of a conspiracy going undetected by the vast majority of people.
5) The only method available to a common person is to analyze for any inconsistencies or gaps in a narrative. Generally the fringe narratives have larger gaps or inconsistencies, though the mainstream normative authoritative narratives are also not devoid of them.
6) Analysis capability (Access to information, freedom of thought, opportunity) is probably normally distributed and generally a person can always identify gaps or inconsistencies in any belief of the wider population at lower level of understanding; it is only inductively logical to assume that one's own understanding at one's level of understanding could have gaps/inconsistencies which one is unaware of.
7) Distribution of information decreases the possibility of undetected conspiracy though it increases the numbers of fringe theories going viral.
8) Also, it is impossible for a common person to verify the veracity of any narrative: either the mainstream authoritative narrative or any fringe narrative.
9) Skepticism increases with greater knowledge, so unless a person has a direct first hand observation or experience of a conspiracy it is impossible to verify any narrative by gaining more knowledge or doing more analysis.
10) Even if such a conspiracy exist, and if a common person gets to know the existence by first hand observation or experience, the ability of a common person to do something significant is very limited.
11) A belief in a conspiracy theory would only cause a common person a great difficulty in terms of both living standard and mental anguish proportional to the expanse of the conspiracy theory and strength of the belief.
Recommendations:
1) It can be recommended to accept the normative narrative while keeping a shred of skepticism.
2) The best a person can do is to favor decentralization of control; although centralization is efficient, it is more risky to be wrong with greater ramification.
3) Support freedom of expression; do not be complicit in *too much* suppression of dissenting voices.
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